Judging Jalen Hurts by the Numbers: Is he a great quarterback?

Jalen Hurts is heralded by many as one of the top quarterbacks in the National Football League. After he took the Philadelphia Eagles to the Super Bowl and came oh-so-close to defeating what has become a mini dynasty in the Kansas City Chiefs in just his third season, the praise is understandable. Following that up with a 10-1 start last season, Hurts was on top of the Philadelphia sports world.

Yet, I still have questions about his “greatness.” I think the Eagles utilize him in a very specific way, maximizing his skills. I think of Hurts not as a “running quarterback,” but a “running back / quarterback.” He’s almost used as a battering ram at times, and I question if that works despite the undeniable success Hurts has had in his 4-year career.

I planned a “deep dive” into statistics for the quarterback all summer, but I settled for more of a wade into the numbers. I have to admit, the numbers did not support part of my theory. I was under the impression that when Hurts threw for a lot of yards, the Eagles weren’t necessarily having success. Not true. Yet, a look into some of the numbers still proved interesting.

According to the game log on ESPN.com for the quarterback, Hurts’ win-loss record is 36-20, including 2-3 in the playoffs. Here’s the breakdown per my count:

11-7 ‘23

16-2 ‘22

8-8 ‘21

1-3 ’20*

36-20; including 2-3 in the playoffs

* He barely played before he replaced Carson Wentz in Week 13, then he started Weeks 14 through 17; the Eagles won Week 14, and lost Weeks 15 through 17. Hurts was replaced in the final game, which held little consequence as the Eagles were eliminated from playoff contention.

It’s an impressive record, but I’m not sure it tells a whole lot about the quarterback as a passer. Ultimately, I decided to look at Hurts’ 300-yard passing games as a barometer for the quarterback. The 300-yard passing day still seems to be an earmark of a great performance by a QB.

Hurts has thrown for 300 yards 13 times in his career with an 8-5 record in those games. The total number of games seems a little low for a quarterback with 56 starts, but that’s just a guess. The record leans a little bit to my overall theory, but it’s not as supportive as it looks when considering 2 of those losses occurred in Hurts’ rookie season when the team wasn’t very good and he was replacing the presumed starter.

Looking at the 300-yard games individually is more revealing:

2023 Season

Week 4, Sunday, October 1, vs. Washington (Win 34-31 OT; Eagles move to 4-0 on the season): Hurts throws for 319, 2 TDs, 0 INTs; reached 300 yards passing in overtime; added 9 rushes for 34 yards, including one for 24; Washington was 2-2 after game and finished the season 4-13.

Week 5, Sunday, October 8, at Los Angeles Rams (Win 23-14; Eagles move to 5-0): Hurts throws for 303 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; added 72 yards rushing, 1 rushing TD; Rams were 2-3 after the game, finished 10-7, and lost in the Wild Card at Detroit.

Week 8, Sunday, October 29, at Washington (Win 38-31; Eagles move to 7-1): Hurts throws for 319 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs; game recap said he was hampered by his hurting knee; Washington was 3-5 after the game.

Week 16, Monday, December 25 vs. New York Giants (Win 33-25; Eagles move to 11-4): Hurts throws for 301 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; added 34 yards rushing, 1 rushing TD; Giants were 5-10 after the game and finished 6-11.

Hurts had 4 other games with over 250 yards passing, with the Eagles going 2-2.

2022 Season

Week 2, Monday, September 19, vs. Minnesota (Win 24-7, Eagles move to 2-0): Hurts throws for 333 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; added 57 yards rushing, including one for 26, 2 rushing TDs; Vikings were 1-1 after the game, finished 13-4, and lost Wild Card vs. the Giants.

Week 3, Sunday, September 25, at Washington (Win 24-8, Eagles move to 3-0): Hurts throws for 340 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT; added 20 yards rushing; Washington was 1-2 after the game, finishing 8-8-1, missing the playoffs.

Week 13, Sunday, December 4, vs. Tennessee (Win 35-10; Eagles move to 11-1): Hurts throws for 380 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, added 12 yards rushing, 1 TD; Tennessee was 7-5 after the game, finishing 7-10, including 7 straight losses. This was the 2^nd game of the losing streak.

Week 15, Sunday, December 18, at Chicago (Win 25-20; Eagles move to 13-1): Hurts throws for 315 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs; added 61 yards rushing, 3 TDs. (Hurts didn’t play in the next two games; I didn’t see an injury mentioned in the game recap. I don’t recall if he was considered “beat up” or injured. The Eagles lost both. Hurts played in the regular season finale.) Chicago was 3-11 after the game, finishing 3-14 with 10 straight losses to finish the season; this was their 7^th straight loss.

Super Bowl, Sunday, February 12, vs. Kansas City (Loss 38-35; Eagles finished the season 14-3, 2-1 in the playoffs losing the Super Bowl): Hurts throws for 304 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT; adds 70 yards rushing and 3 rushing TDs (no other real rushing attack for the Eagles); KC finished the season 14-3 and won the Super Bowl.

Hurts had one other game with more than 250 yards passing, a win.

2021 Season

Week 3, Monday, September 27, at Dallas (Loss, 41-21; Eagles move to 1-2): Hurts throws for 326 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; adds 35 yards rushing; Dallas was 2-1 after the game, finished 12-5, and lost in the Wild Card vs. San Francisco.

Week 4, Sunday, October 3, vs. Kansas City (Loss, 42-30; Eagles move to 1-3): Hurts throws for 387 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs; 47 yards rushing; KC was 2-2 after the game, finished 12-5, lost in the AFC Championship in OT to Cincinnati.

Hurts had 2 other games with more than 250 yards passing, both wins.

2020 Season

Week 15, Sunday, December 20, at Arizona (Loss, 33-26; Eagles move to 4-9-1): Hurts throws for 338 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs; adds 63 yards rushing, his longest 17, 1 TD; Arizona was 8-6 after the game and finished 8-8.

Week 16, Sunday, December 27, at Dallas (Loss, 37-17; Eagles move to 4-10-1): Hurts throws for 342 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; adds 69 yards rushing, his longest 20; Dallas was 6-9 after the game and finished 6-10.

So, Hurts has a total of 5 games with 300 yards passing against winning teams, and the Eagles won 2 of those games.

Two.

I’ll be honest, I’m a bit stunned.

Hurts is still a fairly young quarterback. You play the teams on the schedule. The Eagles use him in a unique way. The game is changing. I hear all of that.

But in January, in the playoffs, I still think you need a guy who can drop back and hit a receiver in the chest.

I’m not suggesting Hurts can’t do that. This is not intended as a be-all, end-all statement on Jalen Hurts. I think it’s something to monitor and continue to build and see where it goes.

Maybe we postpone his enshrinement in Canton just a little while, though.