Phillies 2024 Preview: Did they do enough?
The Phillies open the 2024 season . . . Thursday. Because nothing says “opening day” like late March in Philadelphia with a forecasted high temperature of 51 degrees and rain (per 6abc.com on Tuesday early afternoon). The low is 41.
I guess I shouldn’t complain. Dodgers and Padres fans got to watch their teams open the season for the American pastime last week in South Korea in the middle of the night local time.
Americana, baby!
The Phillies had a relatively quiet offseason compared to recent years. They re-signed Aaron Nola who could have left via free agency and extended the contract of Zach Wheeler, locking in the core of their pitching staff for years. They also signed Whit Merrifield, a utility player from the Toronto Blue Jays who hit .272 last season with an on-base percentage of .318 per ESPN. The team let reliever Craig Kimbrel walk in free agency, and fan favorite Rhys Hoskins was also allowed to leave with Bryce Harper taking over his position at first base.
I like the Merrifield move on paper. He was the exact type of addition to the lineup the Phillies needed – someone who can “set the table” for an offense mostly looking to hit the ball out of the park.
Of course, I’m pretty sure Trae Turner was supposed to do the same thing last year, and he started swinging for the fences at Citizens Bank Park. If Merrifield avoids that temptation – and, you know, stops telling people he might have preferred to go elsewhere – he could be a great addition.
I’m hoping Turner mimics Nick Castellanos, who had a very nice second season in Philadelphia after a tough first year. (Turner actually played well after a difficult first half of last season.) Losing Kimbrel isn’t a big concern with the other arms in the bullpen. Hoskins seemed like a great guy, but he just didn’t fit with Harper moving to first and Kyle Schwarber likely being the designated hitter a ton.
Did the organization do enough? Let’s face it, for the foreseeable future this team wins a World Series, or the season is a failure.
I like to look at the gambling odds to see what the experts are thinking. Here are some odds on the Phillies for the 2024 season (per Sugar House on Sunday night and Monday night):
- Win total 89.5 (Over -125 / Under -106)
- Make the playoffs: Yes -245 / No +185
- Win the World Series: +1500 (7th best odds; Dodgers are first at +325, Braves second at +180; other four are American League teams)
- Win National League: +600 (3rd best; Dodgers +200, Braves +300)
- Win NL East: +350 (behind the Braves -345)
I found some of the player props interesting:
- Harper is +1000 to win the NL Most Valuable Player behind four players
- Wheeler is +600 to win the NL Cy Young behind only Spencer Strider (+450)
- Wheeler is +1700 to be baseball’s strikeout leader, tied with Corbin Burns behind five guys
- Wheeler is +1200 to be baseball’s wins leader, tied with Luis Castillo behind five guys
- Schwarber is +1000 to be baseball’s home run leader behind six guys, Harper is +3000 tied with three guys at 14th
- Turner is +1700 to be baseball’s hits leader behind four guys
- Harper is +3000 to be baseball’s RBI leader at 15th with four others
I’d be lying if I even suggested that I know enough about what other teams did this offseason to say whether or not the Phillies did enough to win their division, let alone the World Series. My gut says, “No.” But a full year of Turner gives me hope. If Merrifield produces, I have more hope. Honestly, if I had any hope that Johan Rojas could actually get on base and steal some bases, I’d be really excited about their chances. (Did he actually bat .302 last year?) Unfortunately, I do not. And even though I said they couldn’t drop Nola from the pitching rotation for the playoffs last year like some fans wanted the team to do, I’m not sure giving him a big contract was the right move. Questions about his performance in important games started to catch my attention more than ever last season.
But it’s a long season. Get in the comments early and often with your thoughts!
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