2012 NBA Playoff Predictions, First Round Picks
I
have to admit that I had a tough time getting into the NBA after the lockout. I
don’t really know why as I’ve gotten passed being riled up over the absurdity
of billionaires fighting millionaires. Possibly it was just the fact that the
schedule was so compressed that getting a sense of what was really going on was
actually more difficult than usual. There were nights that veteran teams were
almost literally taking the night off because they had played so many games in
a short stretch.
I
originally thought this would lead to some upsets in the first round of the
playoffs. For example, I don’t think the Mavericks are a typical 7th
seed. I think they just had everything on cruise control to get through the jam
packed schedule. But as the season was wrapping up they were the only team I was
thinking had a chance to pull off a major first round upset according to the
seeds, and they ended up with a terrible matchup against the Thunder. At this
point the only team I still think can pull an upset in the first round is the
Clippers, but if they beat the Grizzlies it would only be a 5 seed over a 4
seed.
For
the heck of it I filled out a bracket ala the NCAA tournament (see below). In
the West I have the Spurs over the Jazz, Lakers over the Nuggets, Thunder over
Mavericks, and, again, the Clippers over the Grizzlies. In the East, I have the
Bulls over Sixers, Celtics over the Hawks, Pacers over the Magic, and Heat over
the Knicks.
Just
to round out my bracket, I would take 3 of what would be the 4 favorites
according to seed moving on to the conference finals – San Antonio over the Los
Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City over the Los Angeles Lakers in the West, and
the Celtics pulling the “upset” over the Bulls while the Heat beat the Pacers.
From there, I have the Spurs meeting the Heat in the NBA Finals, with the Spurs
winning another title.
But
nobody cares about NBA playoff brackets. So, let’s get to some actual picks. As
usual the large series prices on the favorites makes parlaying series the only
way to make the “points” worthwhile with picks. There is also a 5-team limit
for this type of pick where I check the odds. I mixed and matched to come up
with my two parlay picks:
NBA
Parlay Pick #1: Bulls -1400, Heat -1000, Pacers -800, Thunder -550, Spurs
-2000, for 100 points to win 64.53
NBA
Parlay Pick #2: Heat -1000, Pacers -800, Lakers -250, Celtics -190, for 20
points to win 32.89
Obviously,
I went heavier with the pick combining all of the largest favorites, then got
conservative with the second pick, which drops the Thunder and replaces the two
teams favored by the most with the two teams that I still liked enough to pick
with the lowest odds for a bigger potential reward in terms of percentages. I
know having the Thunder in the first pick goes a little bit against my thoughts
on the Mavericks, but the odds at -550 are “speaking to me,” as Mike Missanelli
might say. I also stayed away from the Clippers/Grizzlies series,
and I am not making a pick on the NBA champion at the moment. If I decide to
make an official pick on a team to win the championship (before the playoffs),
I will do so in the style of a “tweet” before tipoff tomorrow.
I
hope to have picks on individual games throughout the playoffs, so keep
checking out the Ink.
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