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Friday, September 30, 2011

2011 MLB Playoff Preview, Wild Card Picks

          I’ll just get it out of the way at the beginning – I think the Phillies will win the World Series.

          Call me a homer if you must, but I just don’t see any other team in the playoffs matching up with their pitching. The odds makers are with me (and I’m certainly not going out on a limb) as the Phillies are the favorite at +160, the lowest odds of all the playoff teams. It’s actually a better number than I expected, but not quite high enough to make me want to make a month long pick on the Phils.

          Now, back to the beginning and the Wild Card round. Despite yesterday’s post I am flopping on the Yankees-Tigers series. The Yankees are only favored at -150, and Justin Verlander almost ensures Detroit of two victories in the 5-game series and knocks out at least one appearance by C.C. Sabathia for the Yankees. That makes Detroit very enticing at +130.

          In the other American League series I like the Rangers to beat the Rays, but the price of -165 doesn’t excite me. I just think the Rangers have better pitching and more power at the plate.

          In the National League, the Brewers and the Diamondbacks can’t possibly excite anyone. The Brewers are dominant at home, so I’ll give them the nod to win but not enough for a pick at -170.

          Obviously, I like the Phillies over the Cardinals, but the -300 price makes it useless to actually pick them.

          So, I have two picks for the series in the Wild Card round. The first is going to be a parlay pick of the Rangers -165, Brewers -170, and the Phillies -300, for 10 points to win 24.01. Then I’m taking the Tigers +130 over the Yankees for 10 points to win 13.

          I’m very tempted to make a small pick on the Phillies to sweep the Cardinals at +250, but I haven’t done well enough to make a throwaway pick like that.

          My predictions for the rest of the playoffs are the Phillies over the Brewers and Texas over Detroit. In the World Series, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay lead the Phillies passed Texas. But there’s plenty of time to make picks on those series.

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