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Thursday, January 6, 2011

Previewing Picks for Wildcard Weekend

I already offered an overview of how I think the playoffs could go from a wins and losses standpoint. Now it’s time to recap the last week of picks and look at the Wildcard Games by the spreads.

First though, let’s reveal the final tallies for 2010. Overall, I went 91-83-3 for a surprising +406.23 points based largely on the NBA playoffs. The biggest mistake of the year was actually in baseball, where I put 50 points on the Yankees to win it all when reports were running rampant than he was going to be traded to New York. I’ll try to add the yearly breakdown of each sport later.

UPDATE 1/26:
It took way too long to actually sit down and do it, but I finally have the per sport totals for picks in 2010.

NFL: 40-43-1, -76.46 points
NCAAF: 22-20-2, +80.45 points
Football: 62-63-3, +3.99 points
MLB: 4-9, -70.49 points
NBA: 23-10, +477.73 points
NCAAM: 1-0, -5 points (I did make a few tournament picks here; I don’t have totals for them.)

The New Year looked like it was getting off to a great start until there was about a minute left in the Penn State – Florida game. I had already easily won 15 and 20-point picks on Mississippi State and Alabama, respectively, for 31.82 points. PSU was down 6, covering +7, and had the ball. The only way I could have lost the game was a pass to the sidelines picked off for a touchdown. Of course, that’s exactly what happened, and I dropped 15 points. As if to rub it in, Wisconsin lost the New Year’s Day nightcap, but covered the spread. I had them on the money line as a pick and lost. On Monday I bounced back with Stanford for +13.64 points, but lost Arkansas added to the downward trend with a loss last night on a 20-point pick.

I did win my one NFL pick of the week, pinpointing Pittsburgh as the only game I liked where the team I would (and did) pick had something to play for. With the +13.64 points, I finished the week 4-3 for +9.10 points. I feel like I completely choked up a potentially very good week.

At 4-4 in College Bowls for -.90 points, and only the BCS Championship game looking interesting among the remaining games, it will come down to Monday night to see if I do anything positive in the Bowl season. I like Auburn over Oregon right now, but follow me on Twitter for my pick.

Finally, looking forward to the NFL games this weekend, I don’t like any game a lot. I know it’s playoff time, and people think it’s time to “go for it.” But in my experience, it’s not. Logic says that the best teams are playing each other, so the odds of finding an easy game are way down.

The Saints are currently -10.5 over the Seahawks, which I like a little. But that’s a lot of points. The other Saturday game has the Colts favored by 2.5, which looks solid, but it’s high “juice.”

On Sunday, the Ravens also look good at -3 over the Chiefs, but it cost even more. Finally, the Eagles and the Packers game is just baffling me. The Eagles are 2.5-point favorites at the higher juice. If the last two Eagles games are ignored, which there is some merit in doing, I love the Eagles. But the Eagles were also getting thumped by the Giants before their miracle finish. My heart says Eagles, but my brain says Packers. I may just prove Ed Rendell right, by being a “wussie” and leave the game alone.

A parlay on the Saints, Colts, and Ravens, to win straight up actually pays more than double. It’s tempting at the moment.

I’ll post my official picks on Twitter.

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