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Thursday, January 13, 2011

Previewing Picks for NFL Divisional Playoffs

I should have taken my own advice and not put out as many big picks as I did last weekend. But after a couple of wild swings, I ended up +25.23 points for the last seven days, with a 5-4 record.

Saturday was a nightmare even though I actually felt as though I had been somewhat cautious. As I said last week, I didn’t love either NFL Wildcard Game that day. So, I picked the Colts -2.5 over the Jets for 25 points, going a small step above 20 because the price was high, and I basically talked myself into picking the Saints -10 over the Seahawks for 20. I didn’t like giving that many points on the spread, but I was pretty confident both picks would win. In an effort to cover myself, I picked a parlay of the Colts, Saints, and the Ravens in the first Sunday game, on the money lines for 50 points. That one was obviously dead before Saturday night’s game ever even started.

Dropping 95 points on Saturday, I was a bit timid going into Sunday. I also hated picking against the Eagles, but if I’m going to make picks I have to leave my fandom out of it. I took the Ravens -3 over the Chiefs for 50 points. Again, the price was high, so the pick only garnered 40 points.

I also made a small pick in college hoops on Sunday, taking Villanova -5.5 over Cincinnati for 10 points to win 9.09. With both picks in the bag, I focused on the Eagles game.

I actually tweeted that I had the “[w]orst feeling: knowing if the Eagles would run, they'd win, and knowing they won't run.” They didn’t run, and they didn’t win. But I did.

I took the Packers on the money line for my pick at +115 for 50 points to win 57.50 (I incorrectly had it at 67.50 on Twitter).

Finally, I ended the week on Monday night with the BCS Championship Game. I loved Auburn -1 over Oregon, but the truth was that I just didn’t know much about the Ducks. And most people I heard were taking Oregon. Therefore, I backed off a bit and took Auburn for 15 points to win 13.64. It would have been nice to hit it as hard as I was thinking, but the way the game played out with the Tigers winning on a last second field goal, the smaller pick made more sense.

This week I have some similar feelings on the NFL Divisional Playoffs as I did for the Wildcard. I like the Steelers -3, but again the price is high at -125. I lean toward the Falcons -2.5 and the Seahawks +10, but they are both at -115. Finally, the Patriots are favored by 9 over the Jets at the usual price, but I’m not sure which side I like. I’m not sure the Pats defense can keep a team 9 points down. Follow me on Twitter for my picks.

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