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Thursday, December 16, 2010

Previewing Picks for Week 15 in the NFL

Even though I had a decent week with picks, going 4-5 but winning all of the bigger picks for +23.63 in points, I felt like I missed some opportunities.

The week started off a little rough last Thursday, going 0-2 in basketball with the Sixers covering against the Celtics (a game they actually should have won) and the Temple Owls pulling the upset over Georgetown. I was more than happy to give up the 5 points to see the Owls take a big step forward; I would have said the same for the 76ers, but they gave it up at the buzzer. It got a little worse the next night as the Lakers fell to the Bulls for an 0-3 in hoops on the week for me, but just -15 points.

I basically shut down on basketball for the week after that as I was staying pretty busy writing a post a day on this blog since Sunday (technically my Eagles post game article ran on Monday just after midnight), posting each weekday on another blog, writing a longer piece for Page 2, and, of course, Christmas shopping. I really slept on the Sixers earlier in this calendar week. I said they would be a good value for a while, and, despite last Thursday, I think they will be.

On Sunday, I was feeling my oats. Hearing the weather reports for the middle of the country, which would affect the Patriots-Bears and Giants-Vikings games, I thought, “This is why you wait for game day to make a pick.” I liked the Pats and Giants a lot, but with New England playing in a Chicago blizzard and the Giants stuck in an airport since Saturday night which ultimately pushed their game to Monday, I backed off a little bit. I just didn’t know how those unique situations would affect each team. They turned out to have zero impact on either team as they both won easily. I still won both 20-point picks for 18.18, but shoulda, woulda, coulda done better.

The weather might have saved me a little bit in Washington. There were no blizzards around, but the cold, rainy day backed me off a little bit with the Bucs. I lost 10 points when they couldn’t execute the extra point at the end of regulation to send the game to overtime. I lost another 15 points when Aaron Rodgers went out of his game and the Packers couldn’t do anything in Detroit. The game was pretty wretched before he went out. I also won with the Chargers for 9.09 points.

Finally, I won the scheduled Monday nighter with a “pick 6” in overtime by the Ravens to get the rare OT cover with a spread of -3 (or more) over the Texans for 18.18 points. I guess I can’t complain too much about the week after getting a “W” that way.

I ended up 4-2 for +38.63 points in the NFL. For the season, I’m back to .500 at 32-32-1 for +46.88 points. Overall since Week 1 in the NFL, I am 58-60-3 for +24.37 points in all sports. I figured out my Monday night record for the season – counting both games last week and not picking several weeks – and it is a surprising 8-3 for +209.23. Admittedly, the points are a little skewed by the 100-point pick on the Eagles over Washington a few weeks ago.

Right now, several games aren’t even available to pick due to injury, most notably the Patriots-Packers game. With Rodgers a potential game time decision, I wonder if this game ever gets a spread. I love the Patriots at any number up to around 12, with or without Rodgers playing for Green Bay.

I’m almost tempted to make the 49ers a pick right here on the blog tonight, but I want a little more time to think about it. Follow me on Twitter for my official picks. I’m also thinking about Dallas, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans, this week. I’ll get to the college bowls soon.

I am surprised the Eagles are +3 against the Giants. I like the Derrick Burgess signing with all of the injuries they have on defense, but I have to wonder why he was available. I think the Giants could pound the running game down their throats. It’s a lot like last week for me. If Donovan McNabb was still the Eagles quarterback, I’d like the Giants. Now, especially if Asante Samuel is back, I lean toward the Eagles.

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