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Thursday, December 9, 2010

Previewing NFL Week 14 Picks and More; Plus Recapping First Losing Week in a While

Week 13 in the NFL was certainly an unlucky one for me as my hot streak with picks came to an end with a final total of -13.89 points for the last seven days. The win-loss record is a little tough to determine because I picked two parlays with a couple of the same teams involved in other picks.

I started off the week by staying off of the Texans against the Eagles, which worked out well as Philadelphia won and covered. Saturday continued the winning ways with picks on Auburn for 9.09 points and the Sixers for 4.55 points.

Sunday was bad – there’s no way around it. The Saints and Bears won their games, but did not cover. I picked both for 20 points. Now things get a little “involved.”

I picked the Titans, Cowboys, and Ravens, in a 10-point parlay. The Titans and the Ravens cost high “juice,” and I wasn’t real confident in the Cowboys. After the Titans lost, making the parlay a loser, I picked the Cowboys in a 4 o’clock start for 15 points. That helped repair some of the damage with 14.29 points, but I had already dropped 50.

Then I picked another parlay with the Ravens and the Patriots, again not liking the high cost of each individually. The Ravens lost, costing me another 10 points. Finally, the Pats moved to -4 for Monday Night Football, which I took for 20 points and won 18.18.

So, do I count the Ravens as 2 losses and the Cowboys and Patriots as 2 wins each? That seemed pretty stupid, and that would actually enhance my record. So, I went with the games as they played out: once the Titans lost, that parlay was done, so that’s one L regardless of the other two games; same thing with the Ravens parlay. A few weeks ago, I did count games twice in the win-loss record because they all meant something – the parlays and individual games were winning picks. Here, I would end up with a record of 6-5, instead of what I’m going with at 4-4 on the week.

As I said before, the points are the true barometer of success or, in this case, failure.

I hope to get back and track this week. I don’t plan on picking Army-Navy, so college football is out until the Bowls start. I like the Giants, Packers, Bucs, Patriots, and Ravens, at the moment. I’m back and forth on Eagles-Cowboys game right now, as much as I hate to admit it. In the same vein, I may have a late pick tonight on the Celtics over the Sixers tonight and Georgetown over Temple in hoops. Follow me on Twitter for my official picks.

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