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Thursday, December 23, 2010

Preview of Week 15 NFL Picks

The only way I can describe the last week of picks would be “up and down.” I started with just a bad pick on the 49ers on Thursday night, then rebounded with an NBA money line parlay pick on Friday on the Lakers, Heat, and Mavericks, to end up +7.33.

Then came Sunday.

There’s no big story. I just got crushed with the Saints, Cowboys, and Patriot, which were all 50-point picks. I jumped on the Patriots when the -14 point line came out, thinking it would go up. In fact it did go up a little, but the more I thought about it the dumber I felt. The Patriots defense stinks, and the Packers “D” is one of the best in the league. Aaron Rodgers being out for Green Bay didn’t matter nearly enough.

Instead of riding out the error, I tried to compensate by jacking up the two other picks on Sunday. I even increased the Cowboys pick from 10 to 50 points. I won’t call it a bad pick – Dallas was way ahead against a bad Redskins team and just went to sleep. New Orleans was an underdog pick that simply didn’t work out.

I rebounded Monday, winning with the Bears on a 100-point pick for +95.24. I decided to make the pick after hearing that Brett Favre might start for Minnesota. The line dropped to -7, which I was more comfortable with than -8.5. I absolutely didn’t think Favre would finish the game, and the rookie quarterback coming in to a game with everything that was going on – Favre, the weather, the stadium situation – had no shot of keeping the Vikings in the game.

Finally, I won my first College Bowl pick of the season with Boise State over Utah on a 15-point pick for +13.64. Overall, I finished 5-4 on the week, and minimized a disastrous Sunday by finishing with -33.79 points.

This week I have a very early preview of possible NFL picks. I like the Bears, Packers, Chargers, Titans, and maybe the Saints. follow me on Twitter for my official picks.

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