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Thursday, October 14, 2010

2010 NLCS and ALCS Predictions

Baseball is the only thing keeping my picks since the start of football season from being an embarrassment. If I was a bit smarter, I’d probably stay away from football altogether.

I swept the NLDS and ALDS with the Phillies and the Yankees, including a game day parlay. Luckily, I listened to my gut, and stayed away from the other two series. I liked Tampa Bay and Atlanta, but not enough for a pick. Atlanta had limped into the playoffs, and I just didn’t want to pick against Texas’ pitching.

The adage that pitching is everything has certainly held up. I’m not a baseball aficionado, but if the four teams left don’t have the four best pitching staffs in the majors, feel free to name the other.

My thought has been that the Phillies and the Yankees were headed for a rematch in the World Series since the Phils caught fire in September – not exactly a novel thought, I realize. I’d love to say that I see nothing to change my mind, but the truth is that I don’t see enough to change my mind.

The Texas-Yankees series may come down to the fact that Cliff Lee had to pitch Game 5 for Texas against Tampa Bay, and won’t be able to pitch 3 times in this series. And if he tries to I think he’d be ineffective.

If Philadelphia hits like they’re capable of, they’ll beat anybody. The scary thing in picking them again is that they really didn’t hit well against the Reds, and this team can go ice cold. But there’s not a whole lot about the Giants’ lineman that worries me – especially with the Phillies pitching. If Roy Halladay beats Tim Lincecum in Game 1, and I think he will, I don’t see San Francisco having much chance to win the series.

Here’s my picks for the ALCS and NLCS:

Yankees over Texas -180
Phillies over San Francisco -240

Once again, the odds – which are too high for these series – make picking each series individually worthless. So I’m parlaying them for 20 points to win 24.07. I thought I’d be able to go harder on this parlay, but I wouldn’t go crazy. The pitching is just too good on all sides.

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