Numbers Support More “Nola Nights” in October

“Nola Night” used to be a phrase that let Philadelphia Phillies fans push out their chests. Aaron Nola, the presumed ace of the Phils pitching staff, was on the mound and fans expected a win. Lately, hearing “Nola Night” might cause the faithful to feel some trepidation. After today’s win, Philadelphia leads Arizona by 2.5 games for the top Wild Card spot in the National League and is 3.5 games ahead of Chicago (playing tonight) to make the playoffs. And some fans are wondering if Nola should start if they reach the playoffs.

Nola’s performance Wednesday may have given fans a sigh of relief. Helping the Phillies to a 6-5 win over the Atlanta Braves, the pitcher completed 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs with 8 strikeouts and 0 walks in the rubber match of the series.

Yet, Nola’s only been the pitcher of record once in September, getting the loss in Milwaukee early in the month giving up 7 earned runs in just 4.2 innings. Today was the first time he got out of the 5^th inning in four September starts.

Nola currently has the highest ERA among Phillies expected starters at 4.57. He’s given up 31 home runs this season, 11 more than the next closest starter, Zack Wheeler (20), with just one more start, and while his 12 wins are tied (Wheeler) for second best on the team, he leads the team with 9 losses.

The flip side, however, might be better than expected. With 31 starts and 187.0 innings pitched, Nola leads the team in both categories. So, he “takes the ball,” as they say. The Phillies are actually 3-1 in Nola starts in September, and they were 4-2 when he took the mound in August. In fact, the pitcher recorded 3 straight wins to end August.

Wheeler (30) and Taijuan Walker (29) are right behind Nola in starts, and Wheeler isn’t far behind in innings pitched (181). Walker lags behind a touch (159.2). Both have better ERAs, with Wheeler at 3.63 and Walker at 4.40.

Having missed some time with a hamstring issue, Ranger Suarez is only 3-6 this season in 20 starts, but his ERA is 3.80.

Christopher Sanchez’s early performance after re-joining the Phils may have added to the idea of Nola not starting in the playoffs for some fans. Sanchez posted a 2.25 ERA in 5 starts in July, following 3 starts in June with a 2.40 ERA. And late-season acquisition Michael Lorenzen dazzled fans with a no-hitter in his home debut, following an 8-inning performance in which he allowed just 2 runs in Miami.

Both pitchers have cooled off quickly. In five August starts, Sanchez turned in a 4.88 ERA. The Phillies have lost all three of his September starts, with Sanchez taking two losses. His September ERA is slightly better at 3.86.

Lorenzen may be done as a starter for the year. He allowed 23 earned runs in 26 innings in 5 starts since the no-hitter. His so-called “piggyback” game, coming out of the bullpen to relieve Sanchez on Tuesday night, was a disaster. He gave up 4 earned runs while registering only a single out.

Simply put, there seems to be little chance “Nola Nights” won’t continue if the Phillies reach the playoffs. Despite some rough starts for the right-hander this season, including in September, the numbers don’t support pulling Nola from the rotation. There just aren’t enough better options on the roster for such a dramatic change.

Stats per ESPN.com