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Wednesday, October 19, 2011

2011 World Series Pick and Game 1 Pick

          While Phillies fans still might not be ready to watch baseball again – and I’m quite sure I’m not the only one still wondering how the hell the Phillies aren’t in this thing – the Fall Classic must go on.

          At last check the Texas Rangers were favored by -155 against the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series, a price almost as uninspiring as the matchup. I like the Rangers to win the Series, but certainly not enough to make that price exciting. The Cardinals at +135 are almost worth a throwaway pick, but I’m not going down that road.

          The most appealing thing I’ve seen is Texas +350 to win in 5 and 6 games. The problem, of course, is that it’s two separate props – a pick of 6 games is a loser if they win in 5, and vice versa. It’s almost worth it to do both if your “point” total offers a big cushion (and if you follow me, you know what I mean by points), but mine isn’t that cushy.

          A complicating factor for me is that I like the Cardinals (Carpenter) at      -120 over the Rangers (Wilson) in Game 1 tonight. And the biggest mistake everyone makes, and I’ve certainly been guilty of it, is picking “the big game” (or, in this case, series) with a lot of points on the line. I’ve been trying to avoid that lately (see my lack of a pick on a single football game on Monday night so far this season as evidence).

          My season record in baseball is almost as dull as the Series matchup at 34-33 for -1.13 points. All-time on the Ink my baseball picks are at 39-42 for -71.62; the points are seemingly out of whack thanks largely to picking the Yankees to win the World Series in July last season when reports were flying that they were about to land Cliff Lee . . . who promptly went to Texas.

          For this year’s World Series, I am going to pick Texas -155 over St. Louis for 15.50 points to win 10. I know, it’s boring. I’m also going to take the Cardinals with Chris Carpenter at -120 over Texas with C.J. Wilson for 5 points to win 4.17. I don’t think I’ve ever done this before – sort of picking against my series pick in a specific game of the series – but it goes to why I like Texas in the Series. I just don’t think Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa can keep working his bullpen to perfection. Tonight, I’m basically picking them on the idea that he won’t have to because of Carpenter. (By the way, I hate giving even this much analysis before a pick. Lose, and I sound like an idiot!)

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