Are the Phillies really on a “hot” streak?
The favorite refrain of most Phillies fans this season seems to be an exclamation-point-filled, “They’re back!” After Sunday’s action, in which the team completed a run of 13-3, the post-game show on PHL 17 was filled with talk of all the home games they have left, getting everybody back healthy, and at least a sense that Charlie Manuel could massage the closer situation well enough to get them into the playoffs.
I’ll be the first to tell you that I thought this season was over when Chase Utley went down with a broken bone in his hand. When Ryan Howard recently began what feels like his “turn” on the injury list considering the number of injuries the Phillies have had this year, few people would have given any argument against the idea that the team wasn’t going to be playing deep into October – and might not be seeing any fall baseball beyond the regular season.
Even the acquisition of Roy Oswalt did little to excite me – again, for this season. It was another very solid move by Phils GM Ruben Amaro, and having three guys on the pitching staff who most teams would consider their ace is an incredible luxury.
Of course, it would have been super keen had Amaro and/or the Phillies’ owners figured that out before trading away Cliff Lee to “restock the farm system” when they traded for Roy Halladay. Call the issue a dead horse and get excited about “Roy Story 2” headlines all you want. The Phillies have now essentially traded Lee for Oswalt. Is there a general manager in baseball that wouldn’t jump at that deal to acquire Lee? Well, ok, the way former Phils GM Ed Wade has helped stock the Phillies with talent from the same post in Houston, there may be one. But I think the point is still clear – it still isn’t a good swap for Philadelphia.
As Manual might say, though, it is what it is. So, let’s get back to the notion that the Phillies are “back.” Granted, 13-3 is nothing to sneeze at regardless of who they’ve played. But the reality is that fans who are saying they’re “back” aren’t referring to a playoff run. They’re referencing the World Series championship team of 2008. Another reality is that looking at the opponents of a team during a hot streak is the best barometer available for truly judging that team.
Here’s what the Phils have done to go 13-3:
NYM 2-1 (Mets were 55-56 as of Sunday evening)
Florida 3-0 (Marlins were 61-49 as of Sunday evening)
Washington 1-2 (Nats were 49-62 as of Sunday evening)
Arizona 3-0 (Diamondbacks were 43-68 as of Sunday evening)
Colorado 4-0 (Rockies were 58-53 as of Sunday evening)
By my analysis, they beat two solid squads, one bad team, and an improving Nationals team – although, the Nationals are improving from “horrible.” Now, teams can only play the teams on their schedule – I get it.
Go back to the All-Star break, and it gets worse:
St. Louis 1-3 (Cardinals were 61-49 as of Sunday evening)
Chicago Cubs 1-3 (Cubs were 48-64 as of Sunday evening)
The Cubs were absolutely awful in the first half of the season, and should have been a perfect opportunity for the Phillies to start the second half on a strong note. The Cardinals, a definite contender, beat the Phillies 8-4, 7-1, and 5-1, before the Phils won the last game in 11 innings 2-0.
To be fair, we’ll round out July:
Cincinnati 4-0 (Reds were 64-48 as of Sunday evening)
Atlanta 1-2 (Braves were 64-47 as of Sunday evening)
Pittsburgh 1-3 (Pirates were 39-72 as of Sunday evening)
Sweeping Cincinnati seemed to be a huge boost going into the All-Star break, but when three games were decided in extra innings and the other was a 1-0 victory, it may have been fool’s gold.
All told, it can be argued that the Phillies have beaten a total of one really good team in a series since July 1.
A couple of more notes should temper the excitement: the guys who are coming back – and, by the way, Utley could still be weeks away – were part of the unbelievable hitting slump that put the Phillies in catch-up mode (except for Howard), and if being “back” is meant to suggest that the Phillies can win another World Series, someone might want to inform the Yankees that they should be nervous.
I don’t think the Yankees even notice the Phillies at the moment, despite the home team’s “hot” streak.
I’ll be the first to tell you that I thought this season was over when Chase Utley went down with a broken bone in his hand. When Ryan Howard recently began what feels like his “turn” on the injury list considering the number of injuries the Phillies have had this year, few people would have given any argument against the idea that the team wasn’t going to be playing deep into October – and might not be seeing any fall baseball beyond the regular season.
Even the acquisition of Roy Oswalt did little to excite me – again, for this season. It was another very solid move by Phils GM Ruben Amaro, and having three guys on the pitching staff who most teams would consider their ace is an incredible luxury.
Of course, it would have been super keen had Amaro and/or the Phillies’ owners figured that out before trading away Cliff Lee to “restock the farm system” when they traded for Roy Halladay. Call the issue a dead horse and get excited about “Roy Story 2” headlines all you want. The Phillies have now essentially traded Lee for Oswalt. Is there a general manager in baseball that wouldn’t jump at that deal to acquire Lee? Well, ok, the way former Phils GM Ed Wade has helped stock the Phillies with talent from the same post in Houston, there may be one. But I think the point is still clear – it still isn’t a good swap for Philadelphia.
As Manual might say, though, it is what it is. So, let’s get back to the notion that the Phillies are “back.” Granted, 13-3 is nothing to sneeze at regardless of who they’ve played. But the reality is that fans who are saying they’re “back” aren’t referring to a playoff run. They’re referencing the World Series championship team of 2008. Another reality is that looking at the opponents of a team during a hot streak is the best barometer available for truly judging that team.
Here’s what the Phils have done to go 13-3:
NYM 2-1 (Mets were 55-56 as of Sunday evening)
Florida 3-0 (Marlins were 61-49 as of Sunday evening)
Washington 1-2 (Nats were 49-62 as of Sunday evening)
Arizona 3-0 (Diamondbacks were 43-68 as of Sunday evening)
Colorado 4-0 (Rockies were 58-53 as of Sunday evening)
By my analysis, they beat two solid squads, one bad team, and an improving Nationals team – although, the Nationals are improving from “horrible.” Now, teams can only play the teams on their schedule – I get it.
Go back to the All-Star break, and it gets worse:
St. Louis 1-3 (Cardinals were 61-49 as of Sunday evening)
Chicago Cubs 1-3 (Cubs were 48-64 as of Sunday evening)
The Cubs were absolutely awful in the first half of the season, and should have been a perfect opportunity for the Phillies to start the second half on a strong note. The Cardinals, a definite contender, beat the Phillies 8-4, 7-1, and 5-1, before the Phils won the last game in 11 innings 2-0.
To be fair, we’ll round out July:
Cincinnati 4-0 (Reds were 64-48 as of Sunday evening)
Atlanta 1-2 (Braves were 64-47 as of Sunday evening)
Pittsburgh 1-3 (Pirates were 39-72 as of Sunday evening)
Sweeping Cincinnati seemed to be a huge boost going into the All-Star break, but when three games were decided in extra innings and the other was a 1-0 victory, it may have been fool’s gold.
All told, it can be argued that the Phillies have beaten a total of one really good team in a series since July 1.
A couple of more notes should temper the excitement: the guys who are coming back – and, by the way, Utley could still be weeks away – were part of the unbelievable hitting slump that put the Phillies in catch-up mode (except for Howard), and if being “back” is meant to suggest that the Phillies can win another World Series, someone might want to inform the Yankees that they should be nervous.
I don’t think the Yankees even notice the Phillies at the moment, despite the home team’s “hot” streak.